I’ve been making quite a big effort over the past six months to emphasize the speed at which the Florida market has been recovering from the credit crunch and property slowdown. Yesterday morning I received two graphs from one of my main contacts on the ground that will illustrate this far more clearly than my words have ever done. 

Graph 1: Supply in Florida has been falling dramatically for almost a year. This is because developers are not starting new construction projects and prices of existing stock have been slashed by up to 75%, thereby boosting consumer and investor demand (with a little help from US subsidies for first time buyers).

 

 

 

Graph 2: The market bottomed out in December 2007 and it took another 15 months before activity reverted back to late 2006 levels. Over the past six months, it has been quite frantic, which huge volumes of new contracts being issued to a wide variety of buyers.

 

 

 

Breaking through the pain barrier 

In short - developers, banks, agents, investors and homeowners all had to go through a world of pain between September 2006 and September 2009. Their counterparts in Ireland, Britain and mainland Europe have had it easy in comparison. 

Prices are still low, but they are not going lower, of that I am quite sure. There will always be good deals out there for the shrewd and well connected buyer, but the days of snapping up a high quality unit for $50-60k that used to cost $200-$230k are numbered.

The Villas at LaCita is one such untapped gem, and we’ve only 20 units to sell. They are tenanted, they are cash flow positive and they are in a great location. Some have very high rental yields and some have modest rental yields. 

If you want to take your pick of the very best, please visit http://tinyurl.com/torcana-lacita  and contact our offices for further information. 

Kind Regards

Colin Murphy

Torcana.com

With the pound and euro continuing to strengthen relative to the dollar, your hard earned cash can now stretch very far indeed. If you wanted $60,000 in late May it would have cost you around €45,000/£40,000. Now it will cost €40,000/£36,500. That’s quite a difference.

 So a weak dollar is great news for those seeking to purchase US property from abroad, but as many of our readers working in the financial industry will know, the prospect of a consistently weak dollar is of real concern to finance ministers, company bosses and traders around the world.

If one were to listen to the US authorities the message is pretty much the same every week, “it is very important for the US to have a strong dollar“. They haven’t been taking much action to backup that message though.

As any first year economics student will tell you, a weak currency boosts exports and restricts demand for imports, thus improving the economy and lowering the trade deficit. This might suit the US in the short term but it certainly doesn’t suit the EU or Asia, both of whom want to sell their goods and services to the US as cheaply as possible to kick start their own economies. 

The other big worry revolves around the strategies big countries like the US, Britain, Germany, Japan and China will pursue to withdraw the massive assistance they’ve been providing to prop up their economies. That’s a story for another blog though.

Kind Regards

Colin Murphy

Torcana.com

Good afternoon all

We are very excited to be launching a brand new project on Florida’s Space Coast.  

 The development is called Villas at LaCita: the location is stunning, the prices are terrific (from $53,000) and the rental yields on the best units are a rock solid 7-8%.

 Like our previous Madison, Tradewinds, Waterside and Flora Ridge developments, these are high quality tenanted units with long term leases in place & available to investors at up to 75% below previous sales prices. You’ll find full details by visiting http://tinyurl.com/torcana-lacita  

Kind Regards

Colin Murphy

Torcana.com

We’re now in the final quarter of 2009, traditionally one of the busiest times of the year for businesses.  This year is radically different to most of course, because we’re still trying to get out of a severe recession. Others might call it a slowdown, but I’m not particularly fond of that description - recessions tend to shake things up rather than slow them down.

A recession will expose weak business models, destroy bloated companies and create unemployment – this has been well documented. For stronger and healthier individuals and organizations, a recession will reveal hidden strengths, create new opportunities and release pent up energy. Companies can hire top class people on the cheap. Talented executives in large corporations will find their bosses’ much more willing to listen to ideas for developing new businesses and revenue streams.

Most importantly, at least from my narrow point of view, a recession means that distressed assets can be bought for absolute song.

Kind Regards

Colin Murphy

Director

Torcana.com

The bad news is that opportunities for easily purchasing a property at the very bottom of the US market are gone. This isn’t necessarily making front page news in The Times but statisticians and reporters tend to print yesterdays news.

There are two fundamental market forces at play. There is the “real market” which comprises 90% of existing US residential property. This stock may have lost significant value in the last few years but it is neither distressed nor foreclosed and the vast majority of it is not for sale.

The other, temporary market is the “distressed market” which completely undermines all efforts of the real market to sell surplus stock. This is because the “distressed market” as you will guess, is comprised of foreclosed and distressed property from banks and developers.

This market is the only show in town as far as bargain hunters are concerned, and it is our knowledge of the main players in this market and the process by which we help clients purchase, tenant, maintain and resell these assets that makes Torcana.com stand out from the crowd.

 

Kind Regards

David Shaw

Sales & US Sourcing Manager

Torcana.com

One of my main challenges as Torcana.com Director is communicating the furious pace of the distressed USA property market to clients. With property activity moving at a snail’s pace in Ireland and the UK, there is an understandable but hugely misleading feeling on this side of the pond that there is plenty of time to invest in distressed assets and that it is a “buyers market”. As the monthly statistics have been showing, the reality is completely different.

For starters, the blind fear and panic of late 2008 and early 2009 are now distant memories. Regular investors are back and like all smart investors, they are ruthlessly snapping up the best properties in the best locations at the best prices.  

Secondly, regular Americans with good credit ratings have been availing of large housing grants (up to $8000) and high LTV mortgages (up to 97%) to purchase their own homes at 10 year lows. This is having a profound effect on the market.

Thirdly, capital has been flowing back to private equity investors, pension funds and hedge funds. These are the silent whales of the market and they are literally hovering up thousands of foreclosure properties before they even register on a normal investor’s radar.

Total housing inventory is 40% down on last year and real bargains on high end foreclosure properties are like hens teeth. I have seen seasoned operators bidding cash on 5 or 6 deals before getting one of them accepted.

 

Kind Regards

David Shaw

Sales & US Sourcing Manager

Torcana.com

There are a lot of misconceptions out there, and much of it is caused by internet misinformation. The internet is crammed with old, out of date and random opinions. Using the internet as an investment guide makes complete sense but relying completely on the internet can be a little like “self diagnosing”. You start with a pain in your thumb and end up with a terminal disease. This is a complex market and I think it is important to seek advice from people (not necessarily ourselves) who deal with it on a daily basis.  

With so many properties listed on the internet, it can seem that there is no shortage of great deals out there, but it’s quite difficult to find a bargain.

At least once a week a client will call me to say they have spotted a deal on the internet or through a US agent that seems too good to be true and they are either wondering if there is a catch or if I could help them secure it.  Sometimes I’ll have a closer look and within 20 minutes or so it’s usually apparent why it is being advertised at such a low price.

With countless millions of dollars lost to poor investment strategies over the past 15 years, it is more important than ever to consider the fundamentals of property investment before committing. I would never buy a property because it is cheap because value is very relative. I look at the location, the running costs, HOA dues, property taxes, insurance issues, crime statistics and the local rental market. Among other things, I will find out if it is new or recently converted, if it is timber frame or solid concrete build, if the HOA is solvent and the percentage of foreclosures in the community.  

I dedicate a lot of time to locating investments that do not carry these risks.   

 

Kind Regards

David Shaw

Sales & US Sourcing Manager

Torcana.com

I recently read a great quote from Noel Whittaker (Australian financial columnist). It struck me as particularly relevant for those who are unsure of where or how to make their next important financial move.

“Life is full of uncertainties. Future investment earnings and interest and inflation rates are not known to anybody. However, I can guarantee you one thing.. those who put an investment program in place will have a lot more money when they come to retire than those who never get around to it”

Apart from working, investing is the only method of generating long term financial independence. From a personal point of view, I’ve made more money from my investments than I have from the various salaries and dividends I’ve drawn over the past 15 years.

There was a lot of irrational behavior on display in Florida during the boom years. This irrationality forced prices too high and placed unwarranted trust in developers promising they would build luxury resorts that potential renters would flock to.

That property boom has bust, and the prices for certain properties in wealthy locations are completely irrational in the other direction – i.e. they being sold at too large a discount. While the instinct to wait for the macro economy to recover and “normality” to return before investing is understandable, it could turn out to be a counterproductive strategy if your aim is to create wealth for the future. 

There are still quite a few areas within Florida where high rental yields are available and the potential for capital appreciation is huge.

For example, I’m going to be a sizable chunk of this week speaking to clients about the twenty odd units we’ve available Flora Ridge. These three bed properties are tenanted, generate 9% net yields and used to cost more than $350,000 per unit. They are now available for between $114,500 and $115,500. I’m pretty confident these can be sold with a minimum of fuss in 3-4 years time for at least double that. In the meantime you’ll be taking home more than $10,000 per year net of all costs.

You’ll be hard pushed to find something better than that.

Kind Regards

 

Colin Murphy

Torcana.com