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Posts Tagged ‘profitable strategies’
A strategic default is when a person decides to stop repaying their mortgage even when they can afford to continue doing so. Why would somebody do that? You´ll lose your home and your good credit history will be badly damaged.
If you dig a little deeper, the logic becomes apparent.
Let me illustrate by way of an example. Mr Smith bought a 3 bed condo in a nice residential area of Orlando in 2006 for $260,000 and he took out a $230,000 mortgage which is costing $1500 per month to service. He has a nice job and has no problem paying $1500 per month.
However, he knows that half a dozen identical 3 bed condos in his community, which weren´t sold in 2006 have recently been purchased by cash buyers for $99,900 each and they´re renting out for $1000 per month. When you take the interest into account, his mortgage is probably 4 times the size of the current market rates for that property. So he decides to stop paying his mortgage and instead saves $1500 per month.
It takes the bank 9 months to get round to kicking him out, during which time he lives rent free. After he gets kicked out, he simply rents one of the identical condos around the corner and pays $1000 per month to his landlord. He won´t get a mortgage or a car loan for 3-7 years, but he doesn´t particularly care as he´s done nothing illegal, he´s free of that huge 20 year debt and he doesn´t mind renting for a while.
The moral hazard that traditionally prevented people from doing this is disappearing fast. Ten years ago, a person who got kicked out of his house for not paying a mortgage would feel huge shame and embarrassment. His friends and family would pity him and quietly shake their heads at how bad things had turned out in his life. Not anymore. In 2011 an increasing amount of these neighbours will be wondering how they can do it too.
In the USA, in Ireland, in the UK and lots of other countries, it is becoming socially acceptable to stop paying your mortgage. People will understand and won´t think much worse of you. In the US, they might even admire the way you got yourself out of a huge debt. There are now lots of websites offering casual and professional advice to people that want to default on their loans and declare bankruptcy.
What are the consequences of these defaulters?
As you might expect, lenders in the USA hate the fact that a person can choose to walk away from their mortgage. There is no law against doing it. These lenders are lobbying HARD to get the rules changed so that people don´t have an incentive to walk away. For example, they´d like it if a strategic defaulter couldn´t get another loan for 20-30 years instead of 3-7 years. That would prevent a lot of them from doing it.
It´s not easy to prove strategic default though - you´d need to show beyond a reasonable doubt that the person wasn´t suffering financial hardship when they stopped paying their mortgage. Imagine a bank trying to do that to 5000 customers. Better still, imagine a state court system trying to handle 10 banks doing it to 50,000 customers.
Additionally, nobody knows what percentage of people are defaulting because they´re broke versus people defaulting because they don´t feel like repaying a debt bigger than the value of their home. Come to think of it, there isn´t even an official definition for a strategic defaulter.
One thing is for certain though. With the previous chaos in the market abating and the supply of distressed stock dwindling (see graphs above), they represent one of the few ways which will continue to generate discounted houses that investors can pounce on. The flip side is that if it becomes too big a problem, I think loop holes will be closed and people will no longer be incentivised to do it.
Don´t expect the authorities to announce a date for closing these loopholes either - they´ll just do it and tell you afterwards. Otherwise, people would simply rush to default before a deadline.
So, I think I can safely predict that when banks finally restructure their property portfolios and the levels of foreclosures slow to a manageable trickle, they´ll start lending to normal people again. That´s when property prices in the popular areas will start increasing and that could conceivably happen this year.
Regards
Colin
With the pound and euro continuing to strengthen relative to the dollar, your hard earned cash can now stretch very far indeed. If you wanted $60,000 in late May it would have cost you around €45,000/£40,000. Now it will cost €40,000/£36,500. That’s quite a difference.
So a weak dollar is great news for those seeking to purchase US property from abroad, but as many of our readers working in the financial industry will know, the prospect of a consistently weak dollar is of real concern to finance ministers, company bosses and traders around the world.
If one were to listen to the US authorities the message is pretty much the same every week, “it is very important for the US to have a strong dollar“. They haven’t been taking much action to backup that message though.
As any first year economics student will tell you, a weak currency boosts exports and restricts demand for imports, thus improving the economy and lowering the trade deficit. This might suit the US in the short term but it certainly doesn’t suit the EU or Asia, both of whom want to sell their goods and services to the US as cheaply as possible to kick start their own economies.
The other big worry revolves around the strategies big countries like the US, Britain, Germany, Japan and China will pursue to withdraw the massive assistance they’ve been providing to prop up their economies. That’s a story for another blog though.
Kind Regards
Colin Murphy
Torcana.com
- We either locate buildings with tenants in place (most of Florida product) or we collaborate with local management companies to source new ones quickly (most of UK product).
- We advise on purchase strategies and negotiate bulk discounts on behalf of high net worth investors
- We liaise with accountancy experts to ensure returns are filed properly and with title and insurance companies to ensure contracts are processed quickly and efficiently
- We help you obtain financing (where applicable), open bank accounts and obtain tax numbers.
In short, we are a very research and service orientated company.
For more information, please see www.torcana.com.
Kind Regards
Colin Murphy
Director
Torcana Ltd
A new trend seems to be emerging in certain property circles. Several times in the past six months I have seen evidence of hardened investors who have always pursued an offplan investment strategy considering a radical change.
The profitable strategy of the past decade is fairly simple on paper – find a reputable builder, reserve an apartment in a great location which will be built in 2-4 years time, negotiate preferable payment terms and wait for capital appreciate during the construction stage. Definitely not as easy as it sounds, but hundreds of thousands of people have been doing it successfully.
Times are changing though, and these same hardened buyers are now pursuing a new strategy with equal vigor – instead of offplan apartments or condo hotels in emerging markets, they are snapping up completely finished properties in developed markets at discounted prices.
Why? The credit crunch. Developers are struggling to sell excess stock, which means they are under pressure from the banks that financed them. This forces them to drop prices dramatically to stimulate supply and boy are they doing it. I’ve seen prime urban properties in very wealthy cities selling cheaper than an offplan resort in an area with a fraction of the income per capita.
The property section in Torcana.com has plenty of examples for any who have time to look through them.
Kind Regards
Colin Murphy
Torcana Ltd
