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Posts Tagged ‘Torcana’
The condo hotel model has always made me nervous – whether they are in Florida, Mexico, Brazil or wherever else. I prefer to source (and buy) properties where there is a local demand – by that I mean locals who can rent it and locals who can eventually buy it.
Both holiday homes and condo hotels are totally dependent on tourism to boost rental demand, and tourists can be very fickle (condo hotels in areas where there is no established tourist market are even more risky). I can understand that condo hotels will appeal to holiday makers – it´s basically the same as a hotel as far as they´re concerned, but where is the resale market? Nobody can say for sure as it doesn´t exist yet. Think about it - how many people have a bought second hand condo hotel rooms?
There are always 3 broad categories of people who can buy a property from you – locals, tourists and investors. Locals buy for personal use and won´t live in a hotel room. The majority of tourists will either rent somewhere nice (hotel or apt) or they will buy a holiday home. Investors will want cashflow, will look at exit markets before they buy and a real investor will be scratching his head trying to identify the type of person who will want to buy a hotel room from him in 5 years time.
In short, the rental income for condo hotels seems good, but the pool of people who will be interested in buying a second hand condo hotel room in the future will be both small and unreliable. Unless the rental rates increase dramatically, you´ll have to sell at a similar price to what you bought it for.
On the otherhand, if there is an oversupply or a drop in tourist demand, rents will fall and you´ll have to sell at a loss.
Regards
Colin
Answer: Florida isn´t a giant property bubble like Dubai.
A property boom didn´t just appear in the Sunshine State out of the blue. The real estate market was tipping along quite nicely based on firm fundamentals between 1990 - 2002 prior to the unprecedented buying binge that occurred worldwide from 2003-2006.
A high quality of life, lots of space, great schools, universities and employment opportunities, a diverse and high tech economy encompassing large multinationals and government agencies of every description, a world class financial and tourism sector - all these played a part in attracting wave after wave of honest-to-goodness professional workers relocating permanently.
Guess what? They´re still here. If you know where these people live, work, play and go to university you are well on your way to making a wise investment decision. These are the locations where our target market of middle class professionals rent and buy their first homes. Siesta Lago is one of them. The people renting and buying here will provide a safe and stable exit strategy.
If you like the idea of purchasing a property that used to cost $200,000 but now sells for $70,000 and rents out at an 8% net yield - you really should start looking now. If you click on this Siesta Lago link and complete a short enquiry form, all information will be sent to you automatically.
In conclusion, prices aren´t falling anymore in the areas we source property - it is the supply that is falling. The window of opportunity to purchase a) in the best areas and b) at the bottom of the market will probably close sooner than a lot of industry commentators think.
Speaking of which, we´d love to hear YOUR views on the market via our blog comment and feedback forms.
Until next time
Colin
A strategic default is when a person decides to stop repaying their mortgage even when they can afford to continue doing so. Why would somebody do that? You´ll lose your home and your good credit history will be badly damaged.
If you dig a little deeper, the logic becomes apparent.
Let me illustrate by way of an example. Mr Smith bought a 3 bed condo in a nice residential area of Orlando in 2006 for $260,000 and he took out a $230,000 mortgage which is costing $1500 per month to service. He has a nice job and has no problem paying $1500 per month.
However, he knows that half a dozen identical 3 bed condos in his community, which weren´t sold in 2006 have recently been purchased by cash buyers for $99,900 each and they´re renting out for $1000 per month. When you take the interest into account, his mortgage is probably 4 times the size of the current market rates for that property. So he decides to stop paying his mortgage and instead saves $1500 per month.
It takes the bank 9 months to get round to kicking him out, during which time he lives rent free. After he gets kicked out, he simply rents one of the identical condos around the corner and pays $1000 per month to his landlord. He won´t get a mortgage or a car loan for 3-7 years, but he doesn´t particularly care as he´s done nothing illegal, he´s free of that huge 20 year debt and he doesn´t mind renting for a while.
The moral hazard that traditionally prevented people from doing this is disappearing fast. Ten years ago, a person who got kicked out of his house for not paying a mortgage would feel huge shame and embarrassment. His friends and family would pity him and quietly shake their heads at how bad things had turned out in his life. Not anymore. In 2011 an increasing amount of these neighbours will be wondering how they can do it too.
In the USA, in Ireland, in the UK and lots of other countries, it is becoming socially acceptable to stop paying your mortgage. People will understand and won´t think much worse of you. In the US, they might even admire the way you got yourself out of a huge debt. There are now lots of websites offering casual and professional advice to people that want to default on their loans and declare bankruptcy.
What are the consequences of these defaulters?
As you might expect, lenders in the USA hate the fact that a person can choose to walk away from their mortgage. There is no law against doing it. These lenders are lobbying HARD to get the rules changed so that people don´t have an incentive to walk away. For example, they´d like it if a strategic defaulter couldn´t get another loan for 20-30 years instead of 3-7 years. That would prevent a lot of them from doing it.
It´s not easy to prove strategic default though - you´d need to show beyond a reasonable doubt that the person wasn´t suffering financial hardship when they stopped paying their mortgage. Imagine a bank trying to do that to 5000 customers. Better still, imagine a state court system trying to handle 10 banks doing it to 50,000 customers.
Additionally, nobody knows what percentage of people are defaulting because they´re broke versus people defaulting because they don´t feel like repaying a debt bigger than the value of their home. Come to think of it, there isn´t even an official definition for a strategic defaulter.
One thing is for certain though. With the previous chaos in the market abating and the supply of distressed stock dwindling (see graphs above), they represent one of the few ways which will continue to generate discounted houses that investors can pounce on. The flip side is that if it becomes too big a problem, I think loop holes will be closed and people will no longer be incentivised to do it.
Don´t expect the authorities to announce a date for closing these loopholes either - they´ll just do it and tell you afterwards. Otherwise, people would simply rush to default before a deadline.
So, I think I can safely predict that when banks finally restructure their property portfolios and the levels of foreclosures slow to a manageable trickle, they´ll start lending to normal people again. That´s when property prices in the popular areas will start increasing and that could conceivably happen this year.
Regards
Colin
In 2006, the property market in Florida all but collapsed. Investors who were expected to continue their property buying binge left the market en masse. A depressed economy and rising unemployment also ensured that local first time buyer demand took a nose dive.
When this demand dried up, the builders who couldn´t service their loans to the banks had their assets seized. The banks packaged these up and mostly sold them to pension funds, hedge funds, big corporations and high net worth individuals. The banks that couldn´t sell quickly enough became insolvent and were put out of business by big insurance companies and the FDIC. Big insurance companies who insured too many banks with a high property exposure also went bust. From 2006-2008 it was bloody mayhem.
Things have been somewhat calmer since then. With prices discounted by 60-70%, demand picked up rapidly and the existing housing stock fell dramatically. New foreclosed properties were still coming into the market in significant numbers in 2009 and 2010, but they were very quickly absorbed by the market. The two graphs below for the Orlando housing market illustrate this quite clearly.
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What about 2011? There will not be another round of Florida based banks and builders going bust in record numbers - it has already happened. Demand and supply are closer to equilibrium again. A recovering economy is also helping to steady the domestic market and should result in fewer foreclosures from homeowners struggling to service their mortgages.
In other words, the supply of the type of product Torcana sources is not currently in abundance. Finding high quality, pre tenanted, developer owned and highly discounted stock in nice neighbourhoods is very hard work. Siesta Lago is one of these deals. It took a lot of effort to find, but they´re selling fast (3-4 units per day) and mostly to regular investors who agree with our analysis of the market. If you click on the link above and complete a short enquiry form, a full information pack will automatically be sent to you within 10 minutes.
There is one intriguing trend in Florida (and elsewhere) that is worth close consideration and is causing lenders to pull their hair out. I´m referring to strategic defaults. I think they are going to be a big influence on the market this year and will soon enter the political mainstream.
Regards
Colin
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Florida has been very good to Torcana his year with many successful launches under our belts (with Mosaic, Arbor Lakes & Sabal Point being the standouts).
More will follow in early January as we continue to source high end condos with bulk discounts in affluent middle class areas that are pre tenanted by local professionals. Net yields will generally be 8% and prices 70% below peak rates.
Early in the new year we will bring other US products to the market including a variety of bespoke services for investors seeking to purchase multiple units (please get in touch if you´d like to know more).
Lies, damn lies and statistics (Disraeli)
I´ve had US housing numbers coming out my ears this year and I´m going try and ignore them for the next two weeks. For those who don´t want to watch Harry Potter or Willy Wonka on television, there´s no shortage of housing statistics on the USA market available online.
I´ll just give you two graphs in this newsletter though, one which shows the inventory in Orlando over the last 3 years and other which shows new contracts issued in Orlando during the same period.
Off the top of my head, I can think of half a dozen Housing Ministers in the EU and elsewhere that would sell their grannies for stats like these.
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Warm Regards Colin |
That´s it from me for this year folks - many many thanks for all your support during the year.
Wherever you are, and on behalf of all the Torcana team, I hope you have a very Merry Christmas and a successful New Year.
I´ll leave you with a few useful Christmas quotes for those awkward moments when you´ve ran out of things to say.
The Supreme Court has ruled that they cannot have a nativity scene in Washington, D.C. This wasn”t for any religious reasons. They couldn”t find three wise men and a virgin. Jay Leno
Larry Wilde
Warm Regards
Colin
Let´s get the bad news out of the way first. The views I expressed on Ireland and Spain in the Xmas newsletter in December 2009 have not changed one iota. Both are high risk - low return investment destinations and I can´t see that changing in the near term (it will eventually). I also wrote a detailed overview of the Spanish market last month which you can view here.
Brazil will get a lot of attention next year from property investors. Most of the overseas interest will be in the (relatively) high end coastal properties and holiday resorts dotted along the north eastern coast. I´ve absolutely no interest in that though.
However, the second round of a huge social mortgage program (MCMV2 if you want to google it) is quite interesting. Millions of middle income Brazilians are purchasing homes for the first time with government backed mortgages, and there are a several ways international investors can get involved. It wouldn´t be for the faint hearted and it´s still early days as far as my research is concerned. I might have something in 3-4 months though.
Renewable Energy investments will continue to increase in importance in 2011. I´ve been on a steep learning curve with them this year as they are deceptively complex products that come in a very wide variety of structures. I think solar is best suited to regular €50,000 - €150,000 investors and we´re looking forward to promoting these in the new year.
Wind, hyrdro and biomass are more suitable for high net worth individuals. The low entry level (€20,000) forestry products such as teak, bamboo and agarwood strike me as a fad. I´ve looked into about half a dozen of them, some promoted by companies I respect, and I just don´t like the concept. My gut tells me to stay away.
Warm Regards
Colin
When the financial crisis first hit in 2008, the economic and political collaboration between Europe & America was unprecedented. That isn´t happening anymore.
Europe´s citizens (UK included) are now enduring massive spending cuts while the USA is still stimulating its economy.
Or, to put it another way, Europe has checked itself into rehab while the USA wants to inject steroids a little while longer.
Why?
Setting aside the theoretical pro´s and con´s, a big part of the reason is that the US Dollar is the world´s reserve currency and the USA is the only country that can print it. A very large portion of global imports and exports, including crucial commodities like oil, are all based in dollars.
On the one hand, that makes quantitative easing a lot easier, but on the other, countries that hold US dollars (particularly major oil exporters and China) are not too happy about how those actions are diluting their existing reserves.
In the short term however, these tax breaks and stimulus packages should ensure the US Economy has a healthy 2011. It might even continue to be fine in the medium term, but they´ll have to address the debt situation eventually, because it is clearly unsustainable.
Real long term recovery does not involve the US government pumping money into the economy for years on end - that is a once in a generation activity. It is far more important that the private sector figures out new ways to produce goods and services that US citizens and other countries want to consume.
Warm Regards
Colin
If you´ve had a tough year in the office and have spent the past couple of days trying to fly out of an Irish or British airport you could be forgiven for missing this - but the world economy hasn´t done too badly at all this year. The Economist magazine estimates that it has grown by 5% - which is way above what people were forecasting in 2008 and 2009.
Manufacturing is up, global stock markets are doing well and the big fears of double dip recessions in the US & UK never materialised. The economies of Germany, Brazil, China and India - big players all - have been tearing through 2010.
Not so good if live in the wrong part of the EU
While Germany is putting a nice shine on the overall EU performance, the nations on its periphery (Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain) are facing a very grim 2011 and all still have the potential to wreak more havoc in Europe and beyond.
Additionally, Europe´s existing banking model is (in my opinion) unfit for purpose and needs serious alterations. Some banks are sick and some are healthy, but almost all have either borrowed from or lent huge sums of money to vulnerable EU economies. A bickering and fractious EU leadership does not inspire confidence at a time when new shocks and major political decisions are almost certainly imminent.
Warm Regards
Colin
As a property agent with a reasonably high profile, we receive a lot of requests from developers to promote their products. An increasing number of these have been Spanish developers offering 100% mortgages (including closing costs) for buyers and high commissions (6-10%) for the agents. They´re usually big developments (500 units+) with facilities such as swimming pools, golf courses, sports centres, shopping malls etc.
I´ve always had suspicions about these developments and so I visited one this week (23 Nov 2010) to satisfy my curiosity. I won´t give away too much information about the resort we viewed, but there are lots of them in the Costa del Sol and it´s highly unlikely we will ever promote one.
The development we viewed had more than 1000 units all told, and although construction has completed, most have never been occupied. The developer told me they were 80% sold, but he actually meant that they´ve taken 20% deposits for 80% of the properties pre construction and most of these buyers have no intention of completing, certainly not at 2007 prices.
As sales fell off a cliff in late 2008 and people delayed closing, the developers cashflow dried up and funds have clearly not been available to maintain the resort over the past 18 months. Mould was visible on every property we viewed with cracks on the interior and exterior walls, walkways and ceilings. No heating or lighting fixtures had ever been installed.
The golf course was overgrown, the sports centre was never started, the shelves on the supermarket were bare, and the entire roof of the indoor swimming pool will need to be replaced due to the inadequate air conditioners that were installed.
The developer clearly owes the bank a fortune and the bank is desperate to divide this debt between 100s of buyers rather than one developer (who is probably insolvent).
Hence the 100% mortgages.
The pitch is that the bank provides 80% on their “valuation”, the developer “pays” your 20% deposit plus your closing costs and then you get your free property with exclusive access to their rental pool.
Give me a break.
So you get a 2 bed property for €250,000 without having to spend a penny. You just need to service a €200,000 mortgage over 20 years at a variable interest rate with a net rental income that probably wouldn´t amount to more than €4,000 per year. Setting aside the substantial problems with the existing and non existing facilities, no other bank would give you a valuation of more than €175,000 and they wouldn´t lend you more than 70% of it.
Clients ask me about Spain all the time and I´ve no doubt Torcana would have quite a few takers for Spanish property like this with 100% mortgages, great facilities and easy access to the beaches and airports. We´d mostly sell them to people who would buy sight unseen. We might sell 50 of these over two months if we put our minds to it, and we´d make a tidy commission on them all.
The only problem is that our reputation would be destroyed within a year, because these are terrible investments.
That doesn´t sound like a sustainable business plan to me and so it looks like we´ll be sticking to places like Florida until other markets become sufficiently attractive (not to mention safe) to investors.
I´m curious about two things.
Firstly, why are Spanish banks allowed to blatantly inflate the valuations of properties on their books and then offer mortgages on them? Secondly, what sort of property agent would actually encourage their clients to invest in them?
The result of all this is that lots of naive buyers are going to get (forgive me) screwed, but they won´t purchase anything close to the amounts of properties needed to reduce the current oversupply and return some semblance of market normality to the area.
Regards
Colin
